The ten largest markets last year – China, India, US, Germany, Brazil, Spain, Saudi Arabia, France, Italy and Japan – accounted for 82% of new solar installations in 2025.
Growth has continued into this year, with SolarPower Europe reporting that total global capacity passed the 3 TW milestone earlier this year, less than two years after reaching 2 TW and four years after surpassing 1 TW. Solar now supplies 9% of global electricity demand, three times as much as five years ago.
Despite this momentum, the report is forecasting annual global solar installations to decline this year. An estimated 612 GW is expected under a medium scenario, which would represent an 8% annual decrease and mark the first contraction in over 20 years.
SolarPower Europe explains this downturn is largely driven by China, which is on course to record a 24% reduction in installations following policy changes. “The decline outweighs continued growth in all other regions, highlighting China’s influence on global installations,” the report says, before adding that the global decline should not be mistaken for a structural slowdown.
Installations in the Asia-Pacific outside of China are expected to increase by 18% this year, while Europe’s solar deployment is forecast to grow by around 3%. Solar deployment in the Americas is set to expand by 11% this year, the report adds, while installations are expected to surge 48% in the Middle East and Africa.
The report’s medium scenario forecasts global solar capacity to more than double to 6.6 TW by the end of the decade, a downward revision from last year’s forecast of 7.1 TW. It cites grid congestion, insufficient storage, limited system flexibility, permitting delays, financing barriers and supply-chain resilience as key challenges hampering further growth.